Dissertation
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL APPROACH FOR POLICY ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL
Washington State University
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Washington State University
01/2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7273/000004518
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/118974
Abstract
Renewable fuels are a critical component of global strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is essential in a hard-to-decarbonize industry like aviation. Despite advances in modeling and simulation of biorefinery location siting, transportation network design, co-products development and use, and contracting mechanisms, current supply chains for renewable fuel production do not result in competitive costs with fossil fuels. This work focuses on the supply chain configuration of renewable fuels, studying the conceptual components needed to make SAF production systems financially viable. We emphasize the impact of monetization of the ecosystem and social services on the feasibility and investment risk of SAF production. This work conceptualized and developed a financial model that uses a system dynamic approach to analyze the effects of various policies and programs, some of which target CO2e reductions through criteria or purpose. Deterministic and stochastic analyses were performed. The production of SAF from municipal solid waste in the U.S. is used as a case study to demonstrate the model’s capabilities. The results indicate that the SAF business model could be improved by including ecosystem and social services to generate additional revenue. The deployment of the SAF industry requires strong support during the first years of production. After which, it might be competitive with market-based initiatives or leveraging economies of scale. Fuel yield enhancement and emission reductions strategies need to be aligned to maximize profits. The stacking of policies and programs reduces investment risks by approximately 75% in the middle of the plant’s lifetime. Robust private support is needed to ensure the probability of a positive net present value greater than 90 percent in the first half of the production period. This study demonstrates the importance of the valuation and inclusion of ecosystem services for renewable fuels’ project success. This is the first dissertation in the supply chain configuration of renewable fuels field and constitutes a conceptual foundation for the supply chain configuration of renewable fuels and a practical application of system dynamics tools. This approach is expected to provide recommendations for investment decisions and policymaking that help develop a bioeconomy and SAF deployment.
Metrics
204 File views/ downloads
115 Record Views
Details
- Title
- A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL APPROACH FOR POLICY ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL
- Creators
- Lina Pilr Martinez
- Contributors
- Manuel M Garcia-Perez (Advisor)Michael M Wolcott (Advisor)Allyson A King (Committee Member)Claudio C Stockle (Committee Member)Mark M Wigmosta (Committee Member)
- Awarding Institution
- Washington State University
- Academic Unit
- Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences, College of
- Theses and Dissertations
- Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Washington State University
- Publisher
- Washington State University
- Number of pages
- 318
- Identifiers
- 99900882926101842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Dissertation