How Do They Know? What Do They Know? And How Do They Adapt?: Understanding Traditional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Pastoralists in Central Karakoram

Athar Khan

doi:10.7273/000006339

The recent climate change is inherently anthropogenic and unprecedently faster than the changes in Earth’s climate caused by the complex interplay of atmospheric and astronomical factors over geological time scales and the decades of global efforts to mitigate climate change proved insufficient, as the rising global mean temperature has become an existential threat to all life and ecosystems on Earth. Therefore, Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) with ongoing mitigations is increasingly suggested. The variable impacts of climate change make CCA costly and complex, requiring tradeoffs in livelihoods and well-being strategies to adjust to changing socio-ecological conditions. The effectiveness of CCA actions depends upon locality-specific planning; otherwise, maladaptive actions will further exacerbate vulnerabilities. These prevailing uncertainties and complexities are the major stumbling blocks in formulating policies and plans for CCA. The resilience and adaptations shown by Homo Sapiens to extreme climatic conditions over millennia are increasingly getting attention as the global mean temperature is rising. The human experiences of the past embedded in their culture, beliefs, and practices are a complex body of knowledge gained in various socio-ecological systems worldwide. However, the lack of understanding of TEK's scientific basis has remained a significant problem integrating TEK into global and national policies and practices in CCA. This dissertation addresses this problem by applying a three-pronged methodology. The first step involves an analysis of the international institutional and policy framework on climate change based on the literature review and interviews of local policymakers in the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan. The second step involves the examination of the context of agropastoralists' TEK associated with the local ecology and its application in CCA in Central Karakoram Mountain Range (CKMR) in Pakistan. In the third step, the changes in the Bio-Physical Indicators (BPIs) of climate change observed by agropastoralists were validated using the remote sensing models to analyze the changes in land cover and BPIs. The analysis of CCA's international and national institutional and policy framework led to the finding that challenges to integrate TEK's into global, federal, and local CCA mainly stemmed from the absence of locality-specific CCA models, insufficient financial resources, and lack of research on indigenous knowledge-based CCA. The TEK-based CCA of agropastoral communities in CKMR was explored by engaging in ethnographic research, interviews with cultural experts, and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The research finds that agropastoralists monitor Bio-Physical Indicators (BPIs), which are sensitive to climate, and use the centuries-old Traditional Seasonal Calendar (TSC) to interpret changes in the local ecosystem. Monitoring of Biological Indicators (BIs) includes the timing of flowering, leaf shedding, and residency period of free-roaming, heat-sensitive yaks. They use different scales to measure changes in Physical Indicators (PIs). The most widely used scales include body height, limbs, and permanent features on the ground to gauge snow, rainfall, and water flow in the streams. It was found that monitoring BPIs and compliance with the TSC is essential to their livelihood strategy. They attribute the observed changes in grasses' vigor, decrease in glacier mass, and novel weather patterns to climate change. They have estimated that the duration of winter has decreased by 15-20 days, which has reduced the residency time of yaks in the village by 15 days. The study finds that CCA strategies are integral to their livelihoods and central agenda in the discourses and decision-making involving traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). The community, being the producer, consumer, and decision maker, can timely adjust even to minor changes in regional climate. Since the entire process of monitoring, evaluation, and action occurs within the community, the CCA of agropastoralists is a Rapid Response Model (RRM) that does not let accumulation and multiplication of climate change impacts. The applicability of agropastoralists’ RRM at a larger landscape of mountain areas of Pakistan can be explored by integrating CCA strategies of local communities in policies and plans on climate change. The changes in the land cover and PBIs were verified by applying remote sensing models over thirty years (1995-2020). The remote sensing results indicate a reduction in the mass of glaciers, the area under pasture, and an increase in local temperature. These results correspond to the changes observed by agropastoralists, suggesting TEK is an authentic and reliable source of information about the local socio-ecological system.

How Do They Know? What Do They Know? And How Do They Adapt?: Understanding Traditional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Pastoralists in Central Karakoram

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