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Thermal Regimes, Resilience, and Management of River Systems Under a Changing Climate
Dissertation

Thermal Regimes, Resilience, and Management of River Systems Under a Changing Climate

Hailey Smith
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Washington State University
2026
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HaileySmith_Dissertation
Embargoed Access, Embargo ends: 10/23/2027

Abstract

For the remainder of the 21st century, river systems face a high likelihood of severe impacts to their thermal regimes. Surface water temperatures have increased in recent decades, and river systems globally are experiencing more frequent extreme temperatures and longer heat waves. These trends are expected to continue. Management approaches to mitigate rising surface water temperatures typically aim to increase resilience in rivers. One example of resilience management is the restoration of riparian vegetation to increase shade over rivers and streams, which helps reduce extreme water temperatures. This dissertation uses multiple methods to explore the river system resilience approach to management, including an analysis of thermal resilience theory, a field study, community engagement, and a statistical model. In Chapter 1, I discuss resilience theory as applied to the changing thermal regimes of river systems. I propose a normative and transformative ‘beyond resilience’ approach that anticipates the likely future in which resilience of river systems is surpassed by the forces of climate change. In the next two chapters, aspects of riparian shade management are explored using community-engaged research design. In Chapter 2, the shading qualities of riparian species are compared in a field study to aid in restoration decision-making. In Chapter 3, a spatial-statistical model is used to analyze shade restoration impacts on stream temperatures in the Yakima River Basin, where extreme thermal regime changes are occurring. Together, these analyses offer a perspective that supports the value of river system thermal regimes, and the necessity of anticipating future thermal regime shifts in these systems.

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