Thesis
A decadal evaluation of a regional air quality forecast system in the Pacific Northwest from 2009-2018 and an assessment of air quality health impacts
Washington State University
Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
12/2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7273/000003968
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/125066
Abstract
The Air Indicator Report for Public Awareness and Community Tracking (AIRPACT) is a comprehensive, air quality forecast system that provides air quality forecasting over the Pacific Northwest region, which has been operated by Washington State University since 2001. It consists of the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model to provide temporal and spatial emissions, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate ozone, particulate matter and related precursor and product concentrations, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate meteorology, which are an input to SMOKE and CMAQ. In the first portion of this thesis, we have evaluated AIRPACT forecasts for the last ten years (2009 -2018) against the quality-controlled EPA Air Quality System (AQS) observations, examining how overall air quality forecast skills have changed. AIRPACT has been updated extensively over this time period. Our evaluation results show that AIRPACT predicts significant trends of observations successfully and the forecast skill has generally improved. For all versions, DM8A ozone and Hourly PM2.5 meet benchmark goals. The second section of this thesis involves a comparison between AIRPACT forecasts over the Spokane area with two different horizontal grid sizes: 4km by 4km vs. 1.33km by 1.33km. Though a finer grid could resolve fine-scale processes better than a coarse grid, there is no clear difference in forecasts between the two cases. The last section of this thesis is an analysis of the impact of air quality on public health in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) is used to estimate the impacts on mortality, asthma exacerbation, emergency room visits, and lost work/school days from surface PM2.5 and ozone levels in the PNW during 2016-2018. Three different data sources are used in this analysis: the AIRPACT forecasts (4km by 4km), AQS observations, and a combined AIRPACT and AQS dataset. PM2.5 has a greater mortality and asthma exacerbation health impact than ozone in the PNW, but ozone has higher rates of Emergency Room Visits. PM2.5 induced health impacts like mortality, have a 64% to 80% higher incidence than the opposing ozone related incidence.
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Details
- Title
- A decadal evaluation of a regional air quality forecast system in the Pacific Northwest from 2009-2018 and an assessment of air quality health impacts
- Creators
- Jordan Alexander Munson
- Contributors
- Yunha Lee (Advisor) - Washington State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Awarding Institution
- Washington State University
- Academic Unit
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Theses and Dissertations
- Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
- Publisher
- Washington State University
- Identifiers
- 99900890804001842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Thesis