CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY

Madhulika Gurazada

doi:10.7273/000007270

This thesis investigates the influence of natural climate variability phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate patterns, compound events, and agricultural systems. ENSO is a dominant driver of global climate variability and has a significant effect on global croplands, often causing simultaneous crop failures in multiple countries and affecting food security. However, there are scientific gaps in understanding the exposure of global cropland areas to co-occurring heat conditions, such as hot and dry or hot and wet conditions, during ENSO events. Additionally, the combined effects of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on regional climate as well as their influence on the variability in production of different crops are not fully understood. In the first chapter, I examine the influence of ENSO on co-occurring global heat and precipitation extremes and their exposure on global croplands. This study reveals that food-insecure regions in the tropics and subtropics experience elevated risks of co-occurring heat conditions during El Niño events, with significant cropland exposure in South Asia. To better understand the exposure of co-occurring heat conditions for crops in South Asia, the second chapter focuses on the influence of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and their co-occurrences on the Indian monsoon and agricultural metrics such as production, harvested areas, irrigated areas, and yields of five summer monsoon crops (rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet). This study demonstrates that El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in production, harvested areas, and yields of multiple crops, particularly maize and pearl millet, while La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous and widespread increases in all agricultural metrics, generally benefiting traditional grains. Overall, this thesis provides insights into the agricultural risks associated with natural climate variability on global to subregional scales. This work identifies areas where proactive measures can enhance resilience to co-occurring heat conditions and identifies crops that are most susceptible to climate variability. Policymakers and agricultural stakeholders can use this information to guide efforts towards improving food security, such as implementing sustainable agricultural practices or investing in crop varieties that are more resilient to such climate variations. By combining analyses of both global cropland exposure and specific agricultural production metrics, including production, harvested areas, irrigated areas, and yields of five summer monsoon crops in India under hot and dry and hot and wet conditions, this research advances the scientific understanding of the influence of natural climate variability on various agricultural outcomes.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY

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