How democratic was it?: causes and consequences of South America's "Swing to the left" 1998-2010

Richard Elgar

Changes in the political landscape in South America over the past decade have signaled that there has been a significant shift in popular support for leaders that espouse policies of redistribution and increasing independence from World Bank or IMF mandated policies. It has become accepted to view these various electoral changes as a continent-wide move to the left, tinged with elements of populism that have circumvented democratic institutions. I attempt to avoid such an oversimplification by proposing to examine firstly the degree to which there really was a 'move to the left' rather than a continuation of successful populist campaigns. This will involve re-examining the meaning of the concept of populism as applied in the South American context, and hopefully increase our understanding of this concept. Secondly, I will examine both exogenous and endogenous factors that might help explain the political shift to the left. These factors include anti-Americanism, globalization and neoliberal processes, challenges to inequalities in the region, domestic reactions to public policy decisions. I will also consider whether there has been a "contagion effect" in terms of political ideologies spreading from one country to a neighboring one, similarly to recorded instances of riot contagion, or economic contagion during financial crises. Finally, I will consider some of the implications for democracy. Many of the relatively recent changes witnessed in South America are ones that appear to signal very strong moves towards democratic governance, including an increasing number of women in national legislatures, increased local democratic activity, a reduced role for the military in civil affairs, and regular elections that are seen to be fair. However, many of the political institutions that observers from the post-industrial nations might consider crucial for democratic governance are clearly weak, and the growth of populism and neopopulism in the region has been well documented. It has been stated that there is a crisis of democratic representation in the Andes (Mainwaring et al. 2006), and I aim to explore the significance of events of the past 12 years in the context of the changing form of democratization and democracy in South America.

How democratic was it?: causes and consequences of South America's "Swing to the left" 1998-2010

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