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Pricing Accuracy and Efficiency of Traditional Models and ESG
Thesis

Pricing Accuracy and Efficiency of Traditional Models and ESG

Andrew Travis Cherry
Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
2026
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Abstract

Alpha Stability ESG Pricing Accuracy
This study examines the temporal evolution of Fama-French Five-Factor Model performance for ESG returns using the S\&P 500 Scored and Screened ESG Index from 2019-2025. Applying Bai-Perron structural break analysis, three hypotheses are tested regarding parameter stability, alpha significance, and alpha stability across market regimes. The Five-Factor Model maintains high explanatory power (R² > 0.98) across all structural regimes. The Bai-Perron test rejects parameter stability (p < 0.01), identifying three structural breaks at June 2020, June 2022, and June 2024. However, alpha remains statistically insignificant across all regimes, and the Wald test fails to reject alpha equality (p = 0.327). This suggests structural breaks reflect evolving factor loadings rather than changes in pricing accuracy. Comparison with the S\&P 500 reveals divergence in alpha significance. ESG alpha is indistinguishable from zero while S\&P 500 alpha is significantly negative throughout, suggesting this ESG index aligns more closely with Five-Factor Model predictions than its parent index over this sample period.

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