Thesis
QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON RANGELAND VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES AT A RANCH LEVEL
Washington State University
Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
01/2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7273/000002487
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/125198
Abstract
Ranches in the western US rely on rangeland forage production for low-cost feed to produce beef cattle. The threat of a changing climate and increased drought will increase the variability of forage production. To our knowledge, there is little research that couples observational data from satellite remote sensing to economic outcomes for individual livestock producers. In this study, we utilized Landsat-based plant productivity estimates to create a monthly forage production dataset from 1986 to 2018 on a hypothetical 300-head, 21,000-acre ranch in central Idaho. To capture the relationship between annual forage production and climate, we evaluated the forage estimates against climate variables using multivariable linear regression models. Forage estimates were then used to create scenarios for use in an economic model that was parameterized for a representative 300-head cattle ranch to assess economic outcomes (i.e., net income, cost per cow, and optimal herd size). I developed two sets of scenarios which I refer to as (1) the Climate Trends scenario and (2) the Drought Episodes scenario. The Climate Trends scenario evaluated the consequences of two 40-year mean decreases in forage production. The Drought Episode scenarios evaluated the effects of a 10-year moderate and 5-year severe drought during a 40-year time horizon. I found that the forage estimates have a strong relationship with climate, revealing that annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and mean vapor pressure deficit can explain close to 60 percent of the variability in annual forage production. Furthermore, I found that a ranch’s income is sensitive to rangeland forage production and that drought (i.e., low precipitation, high temperatures, and high vapor pressure deficits) can lead to reduced economic viability such as a 20% decrease in net income and a 10% decrease in optimal herd size during a severe drought. A better understanding of the impacts of climate variability on ranch income will lead to improved management decisions and increased ranch resiliency to future drought episodes.
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Details
- Title
- QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON RANGELAND VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES AT A RANCH LEVEL
- Creators
- Aaron Wold
- Contributors
- Arjan J.H. Meddens (Advisor)Katherine Lee (Committee Member)Georgine G Yorgey (Committee Member)Mark E Swanson (Committee Member)
- Awarding Institution
- Washington State University
- Academic Unit
- Environment, School of the (CAHNRS)
- Theses and Dissertations
- Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
- Publisher
- Washington State University
- Number of pages
- 47
- Identifiers
- 99900606956201842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Thesis