Logo image
SANCTIONS, BILATERAL TRADE, AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN: EVIDENCE FROM THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Thesis

SANCTIONS, BILATERAL TRADE, AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN: EVIDENCE FROM THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Aswin Sindhu Radhakrishnan
Master of Science (MS), Washington State University
2026
pdf
Aswin_MSthesis_final2DownloadView
Open Access

Abstract

Extensive Margin Gravity Model Intensive Margin International Trade Sanctions
At the end of the Cold War, modern sanctions emerged as a non-military means to punish or coerce foreign governments for undesirable actions. By the 2000s, countries began favoring targeted sanctions that exclude sensitive sectors like food and medicine. However, targeted sanctions can disrupt agricultural trade through indirect channels. This study examines the impact of sanctions on the extensive margin and bilateral agricultural trade flows using a two-step gravity model developed by Egger and Larch (2011). The first-stage probit model captures the extensive margin by accounting for the endogenous selection into export markets, whereas the second-stage PPML estimation captures the intensive margin. The econometric findings reveal that sanctions primarily operate through the intensive margin, reducing trade volume, rather than eliminating bilateral trade. Our findings indicate that only financial sanctions have a significant impact on the extensive margin, and, given positive trade flows, financial sanctions have a greater negative impact on trade volume than trade sanctions do.

Metrics

1 Record Views

Details

Logo image