Thesis
Simulating the cyclical behavior in metropolitan housing markets
Washington State University
Master of Regional Planning, Washington State University
2001
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/59
Abstract
Urban housing markets have historically experienced cyclical patterns. They are among the most unstable and cyclic asset markets, exhibiting large amplitude cycles of 10-20 years. Denise DiPasquale and William Wheaton (1996) built a mathematical model of a urban housing market to illustrate the cyclical behavior. In this thesis, a system dynamics version of Denise DiPasquale and William Wheaton’s mathematical model was developed to represent the model and verify the results. Further developments were added into the system dynamics model to simulate the cyclical movements more realistically. The developments help one understand the underlying cause of the cycles. Zoning restrictions are then added to test whether Zoning boards can reshape the pattern of boom-and-bust. The simulation results indicate that delays existing in bankers’ responses and developers’ forecasts are the main reasons for cycles in housing markets. Zoning boards can help reduce the amplitudes of cycles to some extent, but they can not reshape the pattern of boom-and-bust in a significant manner.
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Details
- Title
- Simulating the cyclical behavior in metropolitan housing markets
- Creators
- Jane Xinxin Zhang
- Contributors
- Andrew Ford (Degree Supervisor)
- Awarding Institution
- Washington State University
- Academic Unit
- Environment, School of the (CAHNRS)
- Theses and Dissertations
- Master of Regional Planning, Washington State University
- Publisher
- Washington State University; Pullman, Wash. :
- Identifiers
- 99900525127001842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Thesis