A predictive population model for cougars in Oregon

George P. Keister; Walter A. Van Dyke

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A predictive population model for cougars in Oregon

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

A predictive population model for cougars in Oregon

George P. Keister and Walter A. Van Dyke

Northwest science., Vol.76(1), pp.15-25

2002

Handle:

https://hdl.handle.net/2376/1033

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Abstract

carrying capacity

conservation status

human safety-complaints

livestock damage

mortality rates

population density

population growth

predictive population-models

sport harvesting

Cougar numbers in Oregon declined between 1928 and 1961, primarily due to excessive harvest from the bounty system. Cougars were classified as a game mammal in 1967 and sport harvest began on a limited basis in 1970. Because determining population size of cougars by direct count methods is impractical, indirect methods to evaluate status are needed. We analyzed harvest levels, damage complaints, and data obtained from harvested cougars to evaluate their status in Oregon. Biological data obtained from Oregon and other states were used to develop a density dependent model of the cougar population of Oregon. As indicated by the model, numbers increased from an estimated low of 214 in 1961 to 2,830 in 1992, which coincided with other indicators including increased livestock damage, human safety complaints, and sport harvest. The model indicated higher mortality rates for hunted populations and lower proportions of juvenile cougars in populations at carrying capacity. For the modeled population in 1993, sport harvest rates of 5.4% allowed a 5% annual growth. A sport harvest of 10% of the population and a total mortality rate of 35% was needed to stabilize that population. The model predicted that if sport harvest ceased, cougar numbers would increase until carrying capacity is reached in the year 2009. We believe the model is a useful tool to summarize existing data, explore effects of hypothesized management plans, and adaptively aid in management decisions. The model can be adapted to other states if appropriate population parameters can be determined

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Details

Title: A predictive population model for cougars in Oregon
Creators: George P. Keister (Author)
Walter A. Van Dyke (Author)
Publication Details: Northwest science., Vol.76(1), pp.15-25
Academic Unit: Northwest Science
Publisher: WSU Press
Identifiers: 99900501653001842
Copyright: In copyright ; openAccess ; http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ ; http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/OpenAccess
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article