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A techno-economic, carbon intensity, and policy assessment of hydrogen production in the United States
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

A techno-economic, carbon intensity, and policy assessment of hydrogen production in the United States

Valentina Sierra-Jimenez, Kristin Brandt, Aidan Garcia, Manuel Garcia-Perez and Michael P. Wolcott
International journal of hydrogen energy, Vol.231, p.154856
05/06/2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.154856
Appears in  Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT)
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Open Access CC BY-NC-ND V4.0
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.154856View
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Abstract

Abatement cost Carbon intensity Hydrogen production technologies Policy support Techno-economic analyses ASCENT
Comparing studies that involve techno-economic analyses (TEA) and life cycle assessments (LCA) for different hydrogen production technologies is challenging due to inconsistent assumptions across studies. Thus, this research develops a harmonized framework to assess seven hydrogen production pathways - water electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, biomass gasification, steam methane reforming, autothermal reforming, partial oxidation, and dry methane reforming, under consistent U.S.-specific techno-economic, carbon intensity (CI), and policy assumptions. Process models developed with Aspen Plus produce mass and energy balances, informing open-source TEA and cradle-to-gate CI estimates. Thermal conversion pathways produce hydrogen at $0.8–$3.9/kg, while electrolysis-based methods range from $4.5–$18.5/kg, contingent on both electrolyzer and the source of electricity used. Several low-carbon emitting pathways meet emerging clean hydrogen standards, but only some achieve cost parity with conventional hydrogen under current U.S. federal and state incentives. This framework enables consistent cross-technology comparison and supports informed decisions on hydrogen sourcing, including applications such as sustainable aviation fuel production or fuel cell electric vehicles. [Display omitted] •Thermal pathways produce H2 at $0.8–$3.9/kg, while electrolysis ranged from $4.5–$18.5/kg.•ATRM is the lowest-cost large-scale option, maintaining MSPH below $1.1/kg H2 across sensitivities.•CCUS reduces CI across fossil routes and enables net-negative biomass gasification but increases MSPH by 21–67%.•Several pathways meet the ≤4 kg CO2e/kg H2 standard, including renewable electrolysis and SMR/ATRM with CCUS.•45V and LCFS incentives make several CCUS pathways cost-competitive with conventional SMR.

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