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Agronomic levers to increase maize and soybean productivity across the Chinyanja Triangle, southern Africa
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Agronomic levers to increase maize and soybean productivity across the Chinyanja Triangle, southern Africa

Mazvita Sheila Chiduwa, Isaiah Nyagumbo, John Okoth Omondi, Siyabusa Mkuhlani, Patricia Masikati, Innocent Malunga, Mulundu Mwila, Pacsu Simwaka, Mateus Mapaure, Andson Banda, …
Agricultural systems, Vol.236, p.104740
06/2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104740

Abstract

Crop management Random forest Sustainable intensification Yield gap Food Security
Maize is southern Africa's staple food crop, while soybean, a multi-purpose legume, is the fastest expanding crop in area and production in the region. Despite their importance, yields remain low, highlighting the need for context-specific strategies to sustainably increase productivity. This study characterized maize and soybean production systems across the Chinyanja Triangle, estimated yield gaps, and identified agronomic levers for yield improvement. Yields were measured using crop-cuts in farmers' fields in Kasungu and Lilongwe (Malawi), Sinda and Katete (Zambia) and Angonia (Mozambique), alongside a diagnostic survey on crop management practices during the 2022–2023 season. A total of 485 maize and 509 soybean field observations were analyzed, supplemented with secondary climate and soil data, and water-limited yields were simulated with the DSSAT crop model. A machine learning approach combining random forest and Shapley values was used to explain yield variability and identify yield constraints. Actual maize yields across districts ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 t ha−1 on average, and actual soybean yields between 0.4 and 1.6 t ha−1. Simulated water-limited yields were greater than 8.0 t ha−1 for maize and than 3.5 t ha−1 for soybean. Maize cropping systems were similar across districts, whereas an intensification pathway was found for soybean cropping systems in Malawi, an extensification pathway in Zambia and a marginal production pathway in Mozambique. Yield constraints for maize included low plant population, fertilizer management and variety type, while soybean yield constraints hinged around soil fertility, sowing date, and variety type. The agronomic levers identified can be used to target technology development and prioritization of interventions to increase productivity sustainably in the region. These insights support strategic planning for sustainable intensification and food security across southern Africa. [Display omitted] •Maize and soybean are important crops for smallholders in southern Africa, but low productivity persists.•Farm yields reach 25% of Yw for maize and 20% of Yw for soybean, with considerable variation across farms.•Plant density, fertilizer management and variety type were the main yield constraints for maize.•Soil fertility, variety type and seed rate were the main yield constraints for soybean.•Results can support priority setting towards sustainable intensification in southern Africa.

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