Journal article
Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations
Journal of climate, Vol.23(21), pp.5715-5737
11/01/2010
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/109214
Abstract
Abstract Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties and to detect and document ongoing changes in all system components for further evidence of Arctic FWC intensification.
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Details
- Title
- Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations
- Creators
- Michael A Rawlins - Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New HampshireMichael Steele - Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonMarika M Holland - National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, ColoradoJennifer C Adam - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WashingtonJessica E Cherry - International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AlaskaJennifer A Francis - Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, Highlands, New JerseyPavel Ya Groisman - UCAR, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North CarolinaLarry D Hinzman - International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AlaskaThomas G Huntington - U.S. Geological Survey, Augusta, MaineDouglas L Kane - Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AlaskaJohn S Kimball - Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, The University of Montana, Missoula, MontanaRon Kwok - Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CaliforniaRichard B Lammers - Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New HampshireCraig M Lee - Ocean Physics Department, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonDennis P Lettenmaier - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonKyle C McDonald - Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CaliforniaErika Podest - Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CaliforniaJonathan W Pundsack - Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New HampshireBert Rudels - Department of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki, and Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandMark C Serreze - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, ColoradoAlexander Shiklomanov - Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New HampshireØystein Skagseth - Institute of Marine Research, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayTara J Troy - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New JerseyCharles J Vörösmarty - Department of Civil Engineering, The City University of New York, New York, New YorkMark Wensnahan - Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonEric F Wood - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New JerseyRebecca Woodgate - Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WashingtonDaqing Yang - Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AlaskaKe Zhang - Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, The University of Montana, Missoula, MontanaTingjun Zhang - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
- Publication Details
- Journal of climate, Vol.23(21), pp.5715-5737
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of
- Identifiers
- 99900547043101842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article