Files and links (1)
CC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity
Operations research, Vol.68(2), pp.363-380
02/24/2020
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/111091
Appears in Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT)
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a new characterization of multiple-point forecasts
provided by experts and use it in an optimization framework to deduce actionable signals,
including the mean, standard deviation, or a combination of the two for underlying
probability distributions. This framework consists of three steps: (1) calibrate experts’
point forecasts using historical data to determine which quantile they provide, on average,
when asked for forecasts, (2) quantify the precision in the experts’ forecasts around their
average quantile, and (3) use this calibration information in an optimization framework
to deduce the signals of interest. We also show that precision and accuracy in expert judgments
are complementary in terms of their informativeness.We also discuss implementation
of the development and the realized benefits at a large government project in the agribusiness
domain.
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Details
- Title
- Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity
- Creators
- Saurabh Bansal - Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania 16803Genaro J Gutierrez - University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712
- Publication Details
- Operations research, Vol.68(2), pp.363-380
- Academic Unit
- Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT); Alternative Jet Fuel
- Grants
- 13-C-AJFE-PSU-031, Federal Aviation Administration (United States, Washington) - FAA
- Identifiers
- 99900567700801842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article