Journal article
Estimating epidemic parameters: Application to H1N1 pandemic data
Mathematical biosciences, Vol.270(Pt B), pp.198-203
12/2015
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/101854
PMID: 25843353
Abstract
•A closed stochastic SIR model was fitted to data from a 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak.•The standard approach based on the MLE led to incorrect model trajectory dynamics due to underreported infectives at onset.•As an alternative, the LSE procedure for simultaneous fitting of the infection rates and the model’s initial conditions was proposed.•The study advances our understanding of parameter estimation and modeling outbreaks of infectious diseases.
This paper discusses estimation of the parameters in an SIR epidemic model from the observed longitudinal new infection count data. The potential problems of the standard MLE approaches are revealed and possible remedies suggested. The analysis is based on the epidemic data from the 2009 outbreak of H1N1 influenza on the campus of Washington State University.
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Details
- Title
- Estimating epidemic parameters: Application to H1N1 pandemic data
- Creators
- Elissa J Schwartz - School of Biological Sciences and Department of Mathematics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USABoseung Choi - Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 712-714, Republic of KoreaGrzegorz A Rempala - Division of Biostatistics and Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
- Publication Details
- Mathematical biosciences, Vol.270(Pt B), pp.198-203
- Academic Unit
- Biological Sciences, School of
- Publisher
- Elsevier Inc
- Identifiers
- 99900546691901842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article