Journal article
Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends
Global biogeochemical cycles, Vol.24(4), pp.np-n/a
05/13/2010
Abstract
An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.
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Details
- Title
- Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends
- Creators
- S. P Seitzinger - Rutgers, The State University of New JerseyE Mayorga - Rutgers, The State University of New JerseyA. F Bouwman - Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyC Kroeze - Wageningen University & ResearchA. H. W Beusen - Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyG Billen - French National Centre for Scientific ResearchG Van Drecht - Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3730 BA Bilthoven, NetherlandsE Dumont - Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, EnglandB. M Fekete - City University of New YorkJ Garnier - French National Centre for Scientific ResearchJ. A Harrison - Washington State University, Environment, School of the (CAS)
- Publication Details
- Global biogeochemical cycles, Vol.24(4), pp.np-n/a
- Academic Unit
- Environment, School of the (CAS); Harrison Research Group: Global Change and Watershed Biochemistry
- Publisher
- AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
- Number of pages
- 16
- Grant note
- Intergovernmental Oceanographic Committee-UNESCO NASA; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) ceh010022 / Natural Environment Research Council; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
- Identifiers
- 99900667382201842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article