Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice

H. T Banks; J. E Banks; Jay Rosenheim; Kristen Tillman

doi:10.1080/17513758.2016.1143533

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Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice

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Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice

H. T Banks, J. E Banks, Jay Rosenheim and Kristen Tillman

Journal of biological dynamics, Vol.11(1), pp.25-39

03/17/2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2016.1143533

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https://hdl.handle.net/2376/110183

PMID: 26879843

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Abstract

bootstrapping

information content

residual plots

pesticide

model selection

linear splines

herbivory

ordinary least squares

generalized least squares

pest suppression

Inverse problem

hemiptera

Understanding the population dynamics of herbivorous insects is critical to developing and implementing effective pest control protocols. In the context of inverse problems, we explore the dynamic effects of pesticide treatments on Lygus hesperus, a common pest of cotton in the western United States. Fitting models to field data, we explore the topic of model selection for an appropriate mathematical model and corresponding statistical models, and use techniques including ANOVA-based model comparison tests and residual plot analysis to make the best selections. In addition we explore the topic of data information content: in this example, we are testing the question of whether data, as it is currently collected, can support time-dependent parameter estimation. Furthermore, we investigate the statistical assumptions often haphazardly made in the process of parameter estimation and consider the implications of unfounded assumptions.

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Title: Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice
Creators: H. T Banks - Center for Research in Scientific Computation, North Carolina State University
J. E Banks - Department of Environmental Science, Division of Sciences and Mathematics (SAM), University of Washington
Jay Rosenheim - Department of Entomology and Nematology, Center for Population Biology, University of California
Kristen Tillman - Center for Research in Scientific Computation, North Carolina State University
Publication Details: Journal of biological dynamics, Vol.11(1), pp.25-39
Academic Unit: UNKNOWN
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Grant note: FA9550-12-1-0188 / Air Force Office of Scientific Research (10.13039/100000181)
Identifiers: 99900547054801842
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article