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CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Potential Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft Emissions on Ozone and Resulting Forcing on Climate: An Update on Historical Analysis
Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres, Vol.126(6)
03/27/2021
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/2376/111098
Appears in Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT)
Abstract
Commercial aircraft flying at supersonic speeds in the lower stratosphere are being discussed once again after a hiatus of almost 20 years. Potential environmental effects from fleets of such aircraft need to be understood for their possible impacts on stratospheric ozone; levels of stratospheric ozone determine the amount of biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation from the Sun reaching the Earth's surface. Changes in the distribution and concentrations of ozone also have implications on climate. This study evaluates the potential impact on stratospheric ozone and on climate forcing from different levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and water vapor (H2O) emissions from supersonic transport. Toward establishing a baseline relative to prior studies, we also compare these new analyses with results from the 1999 aviation assessments, using the same aviation emissions. Despite the understanding of atmospheric processes used in studying chemistry‐climate interactions have been greatly enhanced over the last 20 years, this study finds that, for the baseline scenario, the resulting effects on stratospheric ozone are similar to those from many of the models in the prior assessment, although with a stronger ozone sensitivity to NOx emissions. We show that the resulting ozone effects largely depend on the NOx and H2O emission levels and the net changes in stratospheric ozone are determined by the chemical interactions between different ozone production and depletion cycles. We also calculate the radiative forcing impact for the resulting changes in the distributions of ozone and H2O, and confirm that stratospheric H2O emissions are an important factor in potential climate impacts from supersonic aircraft emissions.
Plain Language Summary
Emissions from potential fleets of supersonic transport (SST) aircraft have raised concerns about potential effects on stratospheric ozone and climate. This study revisits the ozone and climate impacts from a potential fleet of SST aircraft that were examined in scientific assessments over 20 years ago. This study uses an advanced global atmospheric model to provide a modern baseline relative to the prior analyses. The results show that the derived impact on the distribution of atmospheric ozone are similar to the models used in the earlier analyses. The results also indicate that the effects on ozone and radiative forcing show a strong sensitivity to the particular levels of NOx and H2O emissions, and a stronger ozone sensitivity to NOx emission is found in new analyses compared to prior studies.
Key Points
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and water vapor (H2O) emissions from fleets of supersonic transport (SST) aircraft can potentially affect stratospheric ozone and climate
New climate‐chemistry model analyses of a fleet of SSTs on ozone are similar to results from earlier (1999) aviation assessments, although with a greater sensitivity to NOx emissions
Ozone and climate effects from an SST fleet depends on the amount of NOx and H2O emissions and resulting chemical interactions through ozone production and depletion catalytic cycles
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Details
- Title
- Potential Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft Emissions on Ozone and Resulting Forcing on Climate: An Update on Historical Analysis
- Creators
- Jun Zhang - University of IllinoisDonald Wuebbles - University of IllinoisDouglas Kinnison - National Center for Atmospheric ResearchSteven L Baughcum - Boeing Company
- Publication Details
- Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres, Vol.126(6)
- Academic Unit
- Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT); Emissions
- Number of pages
- 20
- Grants
- 13-C-AJFE-UI-029, Federal Aviation Administration (United States, Washington) - FAA
- Identifiers
- 99900567700501842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article