The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment

Seamus J Bann; Robert Malina; Mark D Staples; Pooja Suresh; Matthew Pearlson; Wallace E Tyner; James I Hileman; Steven Barrett

doi:10.1016/j.biortech.2016.12.032

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The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment

Journal article

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The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment

Seamus J Bann, Robert Malina, Mark D Staples, Pooja Suresh, Matthew Pearlson, Wallace E Tyner, James I Hileman and Steven Barrett

Bioresource technology, Vol.227, pp.179-187

03/2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2016.12.032

Handle:

https://hdl.handle.net/2376/122009

PMID: 28024195

Appears in Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT)

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Abstract

Alternative jet fuel

Monte-Carlo simulation

Renewable Fuel Standard

Techno-economic analysis

United States alternative fuel policy

This study quantifies and compares the costs of production for six alternative jet fuel pathways using consistent financial and technical assumptions. Uncertainty was propagated through the analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. The six processes assessed were HEFA, advanced fermentation, Fischer-Tropsch, aqueous phase processing, hydrothermal liquefaction, and fast pyrolysis. The results indicate that none of the six processes would be profitable in the absence of government incentives, with HEFA using yellow grease, HEFA using tallow, and FT revealing the lowest mean jet fuel prices at $0.91/liter ($0.66/liter–$1.24/liter), $1.06/liter ($0.79/liter–$1.42/liter), and $1.15/liter ($0.95/liter–$1.39/liter), respectively. This study also quantifies plant performance in the United States with a Renewable Fuel Standard policy analysis. Results indicate that some pathways could achieve positive NPV with relatively high likelihood under existing policy supports, with HEFA and FPH revealing the highest probability of positive NPV at 94.9% and 99.7%, respectively, in the best-case scenario.

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Title: The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment
Creators: Seamus J Bann - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Robert Malina - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Mark D Staples - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Pooja Suresh - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Matthew Pearlson - Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies
Wallace E Tyner - Purdue University West Lafayette
James I Hileman - Federal Aviation Administration
Steven Barrett - Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States
Publication Details: Bioresource technology, Vol.227, pp.179-187
Academic Unit: Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT); Alternative Jet Fuel
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Grants: 13-C-AJFE-MIT, Federal Aviation Administration (United States, Washington) - FAA
13-C-AJFE-PU, Federal Aviation Administration (United States, Washington) - FAA
Identifiers: 99900620466801842
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article