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The potential scale-up of sustainable aviation fuels production capacity to meet global and EU policy targets
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

The potential scale-up of sustainable aviation fuels production capacity to meet global and EU policy targets

Alessandro Martulli, Kristin Brandt, Florian Allroggen and Robert Malina
Nature communications, Vol.16(1), pp.1-12
11/25/2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66686-9
PMID: 41290658
Appears in  Aviation Sustainability Center (ASCENT)
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CC BY-NC-ND V4.0,  Open Access
url
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66686-9View
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Abstract

Alternative Energy Sources
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions, yet their production scale-up to meet policy goals remains unexplored. Here, we describe the Global SAF Capacity Database to quantify global and European Union (EU) SAF capacity, comparing it to production capacity announcements. Despite announcements of 9.1 Mt year (2.2 Mt year in the EU) by 2024 and 38.9 Mt year (9.3 Mt year in the EU) by 2030, only 24% (26% in the EU) of the announced capacity was realized on time by 2024. Over 40% of the announced capacity for 2030 risks delays or cancellations. Using a diffusion model parametrized by announced capacity, realization rates, expected demand, and historical growth analogs, we calculate SAF potential scale-up to meet net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Even if SAF follows the rapid scale-up of solar and wind energy, the global and EU capacity will fall short of respective targets by 42% and 18% in 2030, and 7% and 5% in 2050.

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