Journal article
US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective
Global change biology, Vol.22(8), pp.2875-2886
08/01/2016
PMID: 27113317
Abstract
Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States.
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Details
- Title
- US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective
- Creators
- Jean Lienard - Washington State Univ, Dept Math & Stat, 14204 NE Salmon Creek Ave, Vancouver, WA 98686 USAJohn Harrison - Washington State University, Environment, School of the (CAS)Nikolay Strigul - Washington State University, Mathematics and Statistics, Department of
- Publication Details
- Global change biology, Vol.22(8), pp.2875-2886
- Academic Unit
- Environment, School of the (CAS); Harrison Research Group: Global Change and Watershed Biochemistry
- Publisher
- WILEY
- Number of pages
- 12
- Grant note
- 283770 / Simons Foundation Washington State University SEED grant
- Identifiers
- 99900667383001842
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article